Poland’s electricity demand forecasts may be significantly overestimated if they continue to ignore changing demographics and the rapid rise of energy self-consumption. A growing body of analysis suggests that a declining population, a shrinking workforce, and the rise of prosumer self-consumption could dramatically curb future electricity demand.
According to expert data, Poland’s net domestic electricity consumption has grown at a snail’s pace in recent years, rising by only about 1.2 TWh between 2021 and 2025. In stark contrast, official projections assume the country is about to enter a period of rapid demand growth starting in 2027, projecting increases of as much as 3 to 7 TWh annually.
Demographics vs. Energy Projections
One of the core flaws in current energy demand scenarios is their failure to account for population decline and a shrinking working-age demographic. Yet, according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS) 2023 forecasts and its November 2025 update, both of these downward trends will become pronounced over the next decade.
“Poland’s power consumption forecasts are still built on outdated assumptions of continuous economic and population growth,” says Kuba Gogolewski, Program Director at the Mission Possible Foundation. “A declining population, an aging society, and the growth of self-consumption from renewables mean that real power demand could be significantly lower than government scenarios suggest. Ignoring these trends risks driving infrastructure investments that will turn into stranded assets, ultimately pushing up costs for consumers. We must learn from the failed investments in new coal-fired units at the Turów, Opole, Jaworzno, and Kozienice power plants.”
When a population shrinks and ages rapidly, the base of energy consumers and workers contracts, slowing economic growth. This directly dampens electricity demand. Consequently, there is a very real risk that a portion of the planned investments in new generation capacity will end up being redundant.
A Broader European Trend
This phenomenon is already playing out across the European Union. In Spain, electricity consumption in 2025 was lower than in 2007, despite population growth and strong economic performance. Similarly, in Germany, France, and the UK, power consumption has remained below 2010 levels.
This suggests that rising energy efficiency, structural shifts in the economy, and the expansion of self-consumption from decentralized renewables are fundamentally decoupling economic activity from power demand growth in developed economies. As a result, electricity consumption is growing far slower than traditional models predicted.
The Risk of Flawed Investment Decisions
Basing future demand projections on overly optimistic demographic scenarios risks triggering massive over-investment in energy infrastructure – both in power generation and transmission grids.
Over the long term, this threatens to create stranded assets that will either require public subsidies to survive or fail to deliver any economic return. Conversely, lower overall demand will naturally accelerate the share of renewables in Poland’s energy mix and drive down wholesale electricity prices. However, this is contingent on utilizing existing generation capacity more efficiently and significantly expanding energy storage capacity to capture power when the system has a surplus.
This is why a growing consensus of experts argues that realistic demographic modeling must become a foundational pillar of Poland’s energy transition planning.